2025 MLS Cup Playoffs: Early Outlook (as of August 15, 2025)

The 2025 playoffs remain under the format introduced in 2023: the top nine teams from each conference advance. Teams ranked 8th and 9th face off in a Wild-Card match, while Round One is a best-of-three series (higher seeds host games 1 and 3). From the Conference Semifinals onward, matchups are single-elimination—including the MLS Cup final, hosted by the team with the better regular-season record.

This format heavily rewards regular-season success, emphasizing home-field advantage and the importance of securing a top-four seed.

This season's battle for the Supporters’ Shield (best regular season record) is neck-and-neck. As of Matchday 28, the Philadelphia Union lead with 51 points, followed closely by San Diego FC and FC Cincinnati at 49 points. In fact, eight teams are within seven points of claiming the top spot ahead of the Decision Day showdown on October 18th.

Importantly, Inter Miami, the 2024 Shield winners and powered by stars like Messi, Suárez, Busquets, and De Paul, remain in the hunt with 42 points and three matches in hand.

Lionel Messi continues to ride a generational form—18 goals in 18 matches, making him a clear favorite to win the 2025 Golden Boot, just ahead of Sam Surridge. His output—and Miami’s spotlight—ramps up the stakes heading into the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Thomas Müller has landed at Vancouver Whitecaps FC and is poised to make an immediate impact as they push deep into the Western Conference.

On the transfer trail, Toronto FC made waves by acquiring Djordje Mihailovic in an $8 million deal from Colorado—an ambitious move with playoff implications..

• Seeding Battle: With multiple clubs clustered at the top, earning a bye from the Wild-Card round and securing home matches in Round One is critical.
• Star Performers: Messi’s form, Müller joining Vancouver, and impactful mid-season acquisitions like Mihailovic may tilt matchups in unexpected ways.
• Format Impact: The best-of-three in Round One rewards consistency and punishes mistake-prone teams. Lower seeds must win on the road, while higher seeds can advance unbeaten.
• Decision Day Drama: With standings so tight, everything will be on the line—making for one of the most suspenseful season finales in recent memory.
  

• Orlando City SC: A legitimate threat this season, Orlando has already topped Inter Miami twice—netting seven goals in those clashes. With a lethal frontline led by Luis Muriel, Martín Ojeda, and Mario Pašalić, they’ve combined for 33 goals so far—and don’t forget goalkeeper Pedro Gallese’s reliability in between the posts. Orlando's firepower makes them the league’s most potent attack alongside Miami and San Diego FC. 
• Inter Miami CF: Still a powerhouse despite a muscle injury to Lionel Messi. Messi has resumed training, spurring optimism for his return as Miami pushes for titles—both in MLS and other competitions. They sit among the top seeds in the East and remain a playoff favorite with their star-studded lineup.
• San Diego FC and Philadelphia Union: Locked in a tight race at the top of the table, Philadelphia leads the pack, but both sides—plus FC Cincinnati—are within striking distance, setting up a thrilling Decision Day.
• Los Angeles FC (LAFC): The Western Conference’s top team yet faces challenges. New signing Son Heung-min already made an electrifying debut, earning a penalty and nearly a goal, injecting fresh life into their playoff push.
  

• Lionel Messi (Inter Miami CF):Even while recovering, Messi remains central to Miami’s aspirations. As a candidate for both MVP and the Golden Boot, his return is a major catalyst for success. 
• Luis Muriel (Orlando City SC): In red-hot form, Muriel has tallied five goals in his last two outings, pushing Orlando’s attack into elite territory. 
• Martín Ojeda (Orlando City SC) & Pedro Gallese (Orlando City SC): Ojeda consistently fuels the offense, while Gallese anchors a stout defense—a critical combo for deep postseason runs. 
• Son Heung-min (Los Angeles FC): A superstar immediately influencing matches, spotlighting LAFC’s ambitions. 
• Cameron Harper (New York Red Bulls): A rising leader at just 23, Harper’s adaptability across multiple positions has strengthened a youthful Red Bulls side. 
  

• At the end of the regular season, the top 9 teams from each conference (Eastern and Western) qualify for the playoffs.
• Seeds 8 and 9 in each conference compete in a single-elimination Wild Card match, hosted by the higher seed. The winners advance to Round One. 
• Seeds 1–7 secure direct entry into Round One, which is a Best-of-3 series. 
• Round One matchups follow this format:
• 1 vs. 8/9 (wild card winner)
• 2 vs. 7
• 3 vs. 6
• 4 vs. 5
• Higher seeds host Games 1 and 3 (if needed); lower seeds host Game 2. 
• Conference Semifinals and Conference Finals are single-elimination, hosted by the higher seed. Ties after regulation go to two 15-minute extra time periods, then penalty kicks if still tied. 
• The championship, MLS Cup, is a single match hosted by the finalist with the superior regular-season record. Ties are broken with extra time and penalties if needed. 
  
  

• Decision Day (regular season concludes): Saturday, October 18, with Eastern Conference games at 6 p.m. ET and Western at 9 p.m. ET.
• Wild Card Matches: Wednesday, October 22.
• Round One (Best-of-3): Friday, October 24 – Sunday, November 9.
• Conference Semifinals: Weekend of November 22–23.
• Conference Finals: Weekend of November 29–30.
• MLS Cup Final (presented by Audi): Saturday, December 6. 
• Broadcast: All matches are available on MLS Season Pass via Apple TV, in English and Spanish. The final will also air on FOX Sports (U.S.), and TSN/RDS in Canada.
  

• Powerhouse off-season moves: Atlanta United had arguably the best off-season in MLS in 2025 — welcoming back Miguel Almirón and breaking the transfer record with striker Emmanuel Latte Lath from Middlesbrough, signaling serious offensive ambition. 
• Leadership overhaul: They secured Ronny Deila—the 2021 MLS Cup-winning coach with NYCFC—to steer on-field tactics, while bringing in Chris Henderson from Inter Miami as their sporting director, strengthening both coaching and management. 
• Bottom line: With a well-equipped roster, championship-winning leadership, and buzzworthy offseason investments—plus existing form within striking distance—Atlanta United have everything needed to surge in the stretch and lift the MLS Cup this season.